The Global Scenario Group

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Scenario_Group

The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. Convened by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute in the year 1995, the GSG based its scenarios on quantitative social, economic, and environmental research from world regions with the help of Pole Star, a comprehensive database and computational framework for representing alternative scenarios.

The Great Transition
The Great Transition scenarios envision practical, plausible solutions to the social, economic, and environmental pressures which will inevitably worsen as time passes. The Great Transition future is more than simply market and policy adjustments. It is a future in which fundamental societal values change – materialism and self-interest decline replaced by new notions of “the good life” inclusive of human solidarity and environmental sustainability. The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a global citizens movement to advocate for new values to underpin global society.
Eco-Communalism: Localism and civil society help bring about the environmental transition. The Great Transitions scholars do not view this path as being incredibly plausible.
New Sustainability Paradigm: Population stabilization, lower consumerism, and greener values create a more humane world. Civilization has a smaller ecological footprint and its members live healthier, more equitable lives.

Applicability of scenario analysis
This scenario framework has formed the backbone of numerous global, regional and national scenario assessments and has been adapted for UNEP’s Global Environment Assessment (or Global Environment Outlook). According to their website, “The GSG’s research program continues through an expanded effort called the Great Transition Initiative, that takes the GSG’s scenarios as a point of departure in an effort to widely share a vision of hope and generate greater unity among global citizens.” In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has based environmental assessments on the scenario analysis of the GSG.

See also

• Globalization
  
• Global Citizens Movement
  
• Great Transition
  
• Planetary Phase of Civilization
  
• EcoCommunalism
  
• Tellus Institute
  

Paul Raskin

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Dr. Paul Raskin is the Founding Director of the Tellus Institute which has conducted over 3,500 research and policy projects throughout the world on environmental issues, resource planning, and sustainable development. His research and writing has centered on formulating and analyzing alternative global and regional scenarios, and the requirements for a transition to a sustainable, just, and livable future — a future he calls a "Great Transition". His work on scenario analysis has been the basis of numerous high-profile international assessments.
Background


Dr. Raskin received a B.A. in physics from the University of California, Berkeley in 1964 and a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Columbia University in 1970. He then taught at the university level, becoming chair of an interdisciplinary department at the State University of New York at Albany in 1973. In 1976, he founded the Tellus Institute, where he has directed a team of professionals in environmental, resource, and development policy research. Tellus has worked throughout North America and the world. Raskin also founded the U.S. center of the Stockholm Environment Institute in 1989, The Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1995, and the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) in 2003.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Raskin

Tellus Institute

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The Tellus Institute is a non-profit research and policy organization based in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States. Its mission is to advance the transition to a sustainable, equitable, and humane global civilization. The Tellus Institute was founded in 1976 by Paul Raskin, Richard Rosen, Stephen Bernow, John Stutz, and David Nichols. Paul Raskin is the president of the institute.

"Great Transition"
In addition to client-based research, Tellus works to advance a vision of the future it calls the “Great Transition.” The Great Transition is a scenario developed by Tellus in which society experiences a paradigm shift in its values—materialism and consumerism are replaced by individual fulfillment and sufficiency for all. According to Tellus, these new values, coupled with a global sense of citizenship and reinvigorated community involvement, steer the earth towards a sustainable future—a Great Transition.
This would manifest as a novel phenomenon of a global citizens movement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tellus_Institute

Eco-communalism

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Eco-communalism (a portmanteau word combining ecology and communalism) is an environmental philosophy based on ideals of simple living, self-sufficiency, sustainability, and local economies. Eco-communalists envision a future in which the economic system of capitalism is replaced with a global web of economically interdependent and interconnected small local communities. Decentralized government, a focus on agriculture, biodiversity, ethnic diversity and green economics are all tenets of eco-communalism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eco-Communalism

eco-communalism

Philosophy
At its core, eco-communalism holds a mindfulness for sustainable development, a belief in human goodness, which often manifests itself through conflict resolution or multiculturalism. Also apparent is a longing for society to advance past reckless industrialism towards a more localized, environmentally palatable system.
Eco-communalism is often associated with eco-socialism, which emphasizes a movement away from capitalism and toward a less materialistic society. The word communalism itself is a term that describes social movements and theories which emphasize the centrality of the community, and eco-communalism ultimately sees the community as the catalyst to help propel the move away from greed and corporate irresponsibility. In 1983, E.F. Schumacher published Small Is Beautiful, a collection of essays in which he expressed the unsustainability of the modern world’s consumption behavior and the need for a new outlook to prevent otherwise inevitable environmental collapse: "Ever bigger machines, entailing ever bigger concentrations of economic power and exerting ever greater violence against the environment, do not represent progress: they are a denial of wisdom. Wisdom demands a new orientation of science and technology towards the organic, the gentle, the non-violent, the elegant and beautiful."
These are the ideas espoused in the philosophy of eco-communalism – rather than a world of capitalist states and their often exploited workers driven by their own greed, eco-communalism envisions a world in which government is decentralized, settlements are integrated with larger cities, local farming is the primary source of produce, and ecological thinking and interconnectedness are the new human values (44-45). As John Bellamy Foster describes in “Organizing Ecological Revolution,” eco-communalism will be the achievement through revolutionary struggle of a more egalitarian society.” It will be one in which “a vigilant civil society would foster more responsible corporate behavior and new values would change consumption and production patterns.” (19) The GSG gives eco-taxes, social subsidies, and green accounting as examples of how eco-communalism could be practically applied (61).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eco-Communalism

John Bellamy Foster (born August 19, 1953) is editor of the independent socialist magazine Monthly Review and professor of sociology at the University of Oregon in Eugene. His writings have focused on political economy, environmental sociology, and Marxist theory. He is author of numerous books, most recently (with Brett Clark and Richard York) Critique of Intelligent Design: Materialism versus Creationism from Antiquity to the Present, (with Fred Magdoff), The Great Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences, and The Ecological Revolution: Making Peace with the Planet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bellamy_Foster

"It is a future in which fundamental societal values change."

"The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a global citizens movement to advocate for new values to underpin global society."

"The Great Transition is a scenario developed by Tellus in which society experiences a paradigm shift in its values."

"This would manifest as a novel phenomenon of a global citizens movement."

"global web of economically interdependent and interconnected small local communities."

"a vigilant civil society would foster more responsible corporate behavior and new values."

Noahide Laws:

"historical tradition of ethical values and principles which are the basis of civilized society"

"Their observance is required, so that the vision of the United Nations – to have a settled and civilized world, in which economic justice and righteousness will prevail - can be fulfilled, with all of us working together in unison."

"We must first create a new Noachide society as an international network of communities and organizations."

"Upon seizing the reins of government, the new Noachide leaders will move quickly to implement a full agenda of reform."

"If the Jewish people immediately begin preparing adequate structures for the Noachide movement, this tide will be channeled directly into a glorious revelation of Truth."

"Until now, Noahide communities and organization had been scattered around the globe, with a particular concentration centered around the southern United States."


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